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Outlook

The Group’s 2019-2021 Strategic Plan presented in November 2018 focuses on the centrality of the integrated business model, capable of seizing the opportunities arising from the energy transition. The growth in renewable energy, the development and automation of the distribution network, the opportunities for electrification and customer focus are the guidelines of the Group’s strategy. More specifically, the Group’s 2019-2021 Strategic Plan focuses on the following issues.

  • Industrial growth: the Group plans to invest a total of €27.5 billion over the plan period, with the aim of generating a cumulative increase in ordinary EBITDA of €3.2 billion. The full range of investments in the three categories – asset development, customers and asset management – will contribute to achieving this goal.
  • Decarbonization opens the way to creating value, with renewables expected to generate a cumulative increase in EBITDA of €1 billion between 2019 and 2021. The focus of investments in markets where Enel has an integrated presence and in mature economies will enable the Group to increase profitability and achieve its decarbonization targets.

In 2021, 62% of the energy generated by the Enel Group is expected to have zero emissions, compared with an estimated 48% in 2018.

  • Operational efficiency: the objective of €1.2 billion of cumulative benefits generated by efficiencies expected by 2021, mainly due to the effect of digitalization, has been confirmed.
  • Simplification: Enel will continue to increase its investments in its subsidiaries, continuing their integration within the Group and rationalizing our portfolio through asset rotation, with further optimization of the overall return and risk profile.
  • Human capital: our commitment to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) has been extended until 2030. A “shared value” approach towards communities and people integrated into the Group’s core business processes; introduction of specific additional targets for SDG 9 (Industrial Innovation and Infrastructure) and 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
  • Improved return on investment to support dividend growth: we expect investments focused on higher yield assets, efficiency and portfolio optimization will create value amounting to a total of 400 basis points on a WACC of 6.2% in 2021, rising by more than one and a half times compared with 2018.
  • Shareholder remuneration: a 70% dividend calculated on the Group’s ordinary net income from 2019 onwards is confirmed, with an annual compound average growth rate (CAGR) in the dividend per share (DPS) of approximately +12%. For the first time the minimum DPS will be extended to the next three years, with a CAGR of about +9%.

In 2019 we expect:

  • an acceleration of investments to contribute to industrial growth in renewable energy projects, particularly in North America, with global investments increasing by more than 35% compared with 2018 and the continuation of investments in grids, especially in Italy and South America;
  • significant progress in operational efficiency, supported by digitalization across all our businesses, with a cumulative efficiency target of €1.2 billion by 2021;
  • greater customer focus on a global scale and an acceleration of Enel X’s activities in the electric mobility and demand response businesses;
  • further progress in simplifying the Group and actively managing the portfolio, so as to optimize its overall risk and return profile.

Enel Group’s strategy is also aimed at ensuring resilience, mitigation and adaptation to changes in the external environment and, in particular, to climate change, thanks to a business model and leadership position in line with the Paris Agreement (COP21). In this regard, the “Sustainability and the fight against climate change” section includes a review of the main risks and opportunities related to climate change, the mitigation and adaptation actions implemented and the key objectives and metrics.

The progress achieved in each of the key enabling factors and key pillars of the Strategic Plan enables us to confirm Outlook 152 Annual Report 2018 our performance and financial objectives for 2019.

Furthermore, on the basis of the key elements set out above, the performance and financial objectives on which the Group’s Strategic Plan 2019-2021 is based are summarized below.

Financial targets

 

2018201920202021CAGR (%)
2018-2021
Ordinary EBITDA (billions of euro)~16.2~17.4~18.5~19.4~+6%
Net ordinary income (billions of euro)~4.1~4.8~5.4~5.6~+11%
Pay-out ratio70%70%70%70%-
Implicit DPS (€/share)0.280.330.370.39~+12%
Minimum dividend per share (€)0.280.320.340.36~+9%